Agenda-setting intelligence, analysis and advice for the global fashion community.
Earnings season is over, and the runway is just starting to gear up with the men’s shows at Pitti Uomo and Milan. Still there’s plenty to talk about – though depending on the subject, many in the industry would prefer not to.
Fashion’s Silent Majority
No Shortage of News: A few years ago, the confluence of nationwide anti-Trump protests, Pride and Juneteenth would mean your social media feeds would be dominated by brands trumpeting their support for this or that cause. Not so this year; most are offering perfunctory acknowledgement of the holidays — if that — and steering well clear of the immigration crisis dominating the headlines.
Nobody Wants to Be Target(ed): Staying silent is the de facto pose right now, with the Trump administration perpetually on the hunt for fresh examples in its anti-woke crusade. Target offers a cautionary tale: The big-box retailer was hit first for supporting progressive causes, then lost more customers after walking those stances back.
Give the People What They Want: There were signs consumers were getting fed up with all the sloganeering even before Trump’s return to office. A Gallup survey taken last summer found just 38 percent of respondents wanted companies to take political stances, down 10 percentage points since 2022. The steepest drops were among more liberal demographics, including younger respondents as well as those identifying as Asian, Black or as Democrats.
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Do It Right: The numbers don’t tell the whole story. Consumers by now know the difference between posting a black square on Instagram and supporting Black employees, customers and communities. Authentic corporate activism can still be effective, when brands put in the work behind the scenes and are thoughtful in their messaging.
Now for Some Good News
What’s Happening: The US Census Bureau reports retail sales for May on June 17. Trade talks between the US and China are also continuing, with both sides reporting progress towards a lasting deal last week.
Crisis Averted? The post-tariff data economic data has been surprisingly good. Last week, inflation came in at a mild 2.4 percent annual rate, as expected; clothing prices actually fell 0.9 percent. April retail sales for clothing were up 3.5 percent from a year earlier. Many brands offered a cautious outlook for the remainder of the year when they reported earnings last month, but few predicted outright disaster.
Or Maybe Not: The inflation figures were a bit of a mirage, as many brands have announced price increases without implementing them yet. Retail sales, too, could be deceptively strong, if consumers are moving up purchases to avoid future tariffs. The retailers with the most exposure to China — ultra fast fashion brands Shein and Temu — have seen sales plunge, a potential sign of what’s in store for the wider industry if prices rise dramatically.
The Final Countdown: Which future we get will depend on the outcome of trade negotiations between the Trump administration and dozens of countries. Reciprocal tariffs on many countries kick in on July 8, while China’s 145 percent tariff was postponed until August. Markets are pricing in further delays, deals, or both. That appears to be a safe bet right now, but until agreements are in place, it is still a bet.
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